Grammy picks and predictions

Who we'd like to see win...and who probably will

By Andy Hermann

Metromix

Let’s face it: the Grammys have a thankless task. If there’s any form of popular entertainment no one can ever agree on, it’s music.

Depending on who you talk to, Kanye West (winner of 10 Grammys) is either a spoiled egomaniac who can’t rap, or a musical visionary pushing hip-hop to new heights; Coldplay (three-time winners) are either the most important rock band of their generation or a bunch of milquetoast hacks knocking off U2 and Radiohead; and Adele (with four nominations this year) is either the most exciting artist to come out of England since Amy Winehouse, or someone you’ve never heard of.

Still, this year more than most, it feels like the Grammy nominations were handed out wisely. There’s a good mix of musical styles in all the top categories, from the sugary Top 40 pop of artists like Katy Perry and the Jonas Brothers to the more cutting-edge sounds of M.I.A. and Radiohead.

So who will win the trophies in the big categories at the 51st annual Grammy Awards? And perhaps more importantly: who should win? Here are Metromix’s picks and predictions. (For a complete list of nominees, click here.)

[Editor's note: Although we got it wrong in three of the four major categories, we were 10 for 14 on our predictions overall. Just sayin'.]

Record of the Year
Who should win: M.I.A. for “Paper Planes.” With its spooky sample of the Clash’s “Straight to Hell,” its cash-registers-and-gunshots chorus, and M.I.A.’s third-world hustler lyrics, “Paper Planes” is the perfect soundtrack for these nervous times. But there’s nothing award shows love more than an ambitious project from a well-established artist, which means this will probably be Coldplay’s year to sweep.
Who will win: Coldplay for “Viva La Vida.”

Who did win: Robert Plant and Alison Krauss for "Please Read the Letter."

Album of the Year
Who should win: Lil Wayne for “Tha Carter III.” Not only did “Carter” sell over a million copies in its first week—an unheard-of achievement in the digital age—it also rewrote the hip-hop rulebook, mixing club-friendly beats with up-from-the-underground freestyles and establishing Wayne once and for all as mainstream rap’s weirdest and most profligate talent. But again, it’s up against Chris Martin and company.
Who will win: Coldplay for “Viva La Vida.”

Who did win: Robert Plant and Alison Krauss for "Raising Sand."

Song of the Year
Who should win: Estelle (and her co-songwriters) for “American Boy.” Summer jams didn’t get any smarter or slinkier than this trans-Atlantic come-on. Now if only Estelle had hired Brian Eno to produce it instead of will.i.am.
Who will win: Coldplay for “Viva La Vida.”

Who did win: Coldplay for "Viva La Vida."

Best New Artist
Who should win: Adele. The Jonas Brothers sold more records and Duffy got more critical attention, but Adele is by far the most original new voice among this year’s nominees (with all due respect to Jazmine Sullivan and Lady Antebellum, who are certainly both very good at what they do). But the Grammys have been burned by giving this award to longshot nominees in the past (remember Starland Vocal Band? exactly), so they tend now to stick to more commercially proven acts.
Who will win: The Jonas Brothers.

Who did win: Adele.

Best Female Pop Vocal Performance
Who should win: Katy Perry for “I Kissed a Girl.” Backlash be damned—no pop song in 2008 left a more indelible impression than Perry’s gleefully trashy tribute to girl-on-girl action. Still, Perry is already starting to feel like yesterday’s news, while Adele has the duel advantage of being red-hot now and seeming like less of a lightweight.
Who will win: Adele for “Chasing Pavements.”

Who did win: Adele for "Chasing Pavements."

Best Male Pop Vocal Performance
Who should win: Jason Mraz for “I’m Yours.” Mraz’s feather-light folk-pop is the musical equivalent of a good romantic comedy—it’s seemingly disposable but can really get under your skin, and it’s harder to do well than it looks. He’s up against two of his influences, John Mayer and James Taylor, and he deserves to beat them both—but it’s unlikely that he will.
Who will win: John Mayer for “Say.”

Who did win: John Mayer for "Say."

Best Electronic/Dance Album
Who should win: Robyn for her self-titled album. Even though it was originally released overseas in 2005, “Robyn” still sounds fresher than anything else nominated in this category. (Yes, even Daft Punk.) Unfortunately, the Grammys tend to lag about a decade behind the times when it comes to dance music; last year, this award went to the Chemical Brothers, and the year before that, they bestowed it upon (wait for it) Madonna.
Who will win: Moby for “Last Night.”

Who did win: Daft Punk for "Alive 2007."

Best Rock Song
Who should win: Radiohead for “House of Cards.” A long overdue reminder that the band that did “Creep” and “High and Dry” is still capable of dialing down the experimentation and just writing a flat-out great pop song. But it’s hard to bet against the Boss’ most popular single in years.
Who will win: Bruce Springsteen for “Girls in Their Summer Clothes.” 

Who did win: Bruce Springsteen for "Girls in Their Summer Clothes."

Best Rock Album
Who should win: The Raconteurs for “Consolers of the Lonely.” We’re sort of stunned that the second album from Jack White’s so-called side project (which at this point has eclipsed the White Stripes by nearly every measure imaginable) even got nominated. By far one of 2008’s most underrated records, it’s a dazzling display of throwback arena-rock chops and ambitious songwriting that, thanks to an unconventional release (it hit stores less than a month after it was completed, with no advance copies sent to the press), never got the attention it deserved. So kudos to the Grammys for giving the Raconteurs a nod—but since they're up against Coldplay, they don't have a prayer of winning. Better luck next time, Jack!
Who will win: Coldplay for “Viva La Vida or Death and All His Friends.”

Who did win: Coldplay for "Viva La Vida."

Best Alternative Music Album
Who should win: Radiohead for “In Rainbows.” It’s hard to argue with any of the Grammys’ picks in this category; Beck, My Morning Jacket, Gnarls Barkley and Death Cab for Cutie round out the field. But Thom Yorke and company operate on a different level than any of their peers. No other band continues to make such consistently good records while constantly reinventing itself.
Who will win: Radiohead.

Who did win: Radiohead.

Best Rap Song
Who should win: Lil Wayne and his co-songwriters for “Lollipop.” “Low” might be a catchier song, and Lupe Fiasco’s “Superstar” more substantive, but for sheer entertainment value, nothing on hip-hop radio last year topped Weezy’s Auto-Tuned ode to fellatio.
Who will win: Lil Wayne.

Who did win: Lil Wayne.

Best Rap Album
Who should win: Lil Wayne for “Tha Carter III.” See Album the Year, above.
Who will win: Lil Wayne.

Who did win: Lil Wayne.

Best Country Song
Who should win: Jamey Johnson for “In Color.” Johnson’s songwriting is so far ahead of the Nashville pack that he should be a shoo-in to win all three of his nominations. Unfortunately, the Grammys are, like most award shows, primarily a popularity contest, and “In Color” barely cracked the country chart’s top 10.
Who will win: Sugarland for “Stay.”

Who did win: Sugarland.

Best Country Album
Who should win: Jamey Johnson for “That Lonesome Song.” In this category, it’s seniority, not popularity, that will probably keep Johnson from getting his due. The 56-year-old George Strait has never won a Grammy, and this feels like it’s finally his year.
Who will win: George Strait for “Troubadour.”

Who did win: George Strait.

Got your own favorites among this year's Grammy nominees? Go to our Grammy poll to cast your votes in all major categories, or leave a comment below.